Housing predictions for 2024

As we approach the end of the year, it's that time when all the 2024 prediction articles are making their way into the spotlight. We've sifted through insights from Redfin, Zillow, Bankrate, and Forbes, and here's the consensus of what to expect on a national scale, presented in a straightforward manner:

1. Home prices are expected to decrease.
2. Inventory levels are anticipated to increase.
3. Mortgage rates are projected to decrease.
4. Demand for rentals is expected to rise.
5. Foreclosures are likely to increase.

However, when we shift our focus to Hawaii, the local real estate landscape differs from the national market. While home prices may experience minimal decreases and inventory remains a persistent challenge, the demand for rentals is expected to remain relatively stable. Hawaii stands apart from other states due to its limited land availability and one of the highest costs of living in the nation. In fact, Forbes recently reported that Hawaii has the highest household debt per capita. If you're interested in delving deeper into Hawaii's cost of living, you can explore our dedicated article here.

We understand that the cost of living in Hawaii can be on the higher side, and our local real estate market doesn't always follow national trends precisely. However, what remains evident is that investing in Hawaii's real estate is a solid decision. Hawaii has a history of consistent annual appreciation in home values, a trend that not many states can boast. That said, we invite you to explore Hawaii's housing market across Oahu, Maui, Kauai, and the Big Island in this report, where you'll find valuable statistics and property listings. Alternatively, if you're in the market for a brand-new home that's yet to be constructed, don't miss our latest Hawaii New Homes Report here. We're here to be your trusted source for all things real estate in Hawaii.

Oahu Market Report

In November, Oahu's single-family home market experienced a 6.3% year-over-year decline in sales, with the median price at $1,100,055, a 4.3% drop. Notably, the $800,000 to $1,199,999 price range had a 28% decrease in sales volume, while properties spent a median of 29 days on the market, up from 18 days in November 2022.

On the condo front, Oahu saw an 8.8% dip in sales but a 7.5% year-over-year increase in median price at $516,179 in November. Over 75% of pending condo sales occurred in the $200,000 to $799,999 range, particularly the $300,000 to $599,999 range, which represented 46% of contract signings. Condos had a median of 23 days on the market, and new listings were down by 13.1% compared to the previous year, while condo inventory grew by 7.5% year-over-year.

Maui Market Report

In recent data for Maui, new listings for single-family homes decreased by 28.9%, while condominium homes saw a notable increase of 20.9%. Pending sales for single-family homes decreased by 10.8%, and inventory declined by 16.0%. The median sales price for single-family homes increased by 7.3% to reach $1,100,000, while the days on the market decreased by 28.4%. However, the months' supply of inventory increased by 8.1%.

For Maui's condominium market, new listings increased by 20.9%, but pending sales decreased by 11.4%. Condo inventory, on the other hand, surged by 40.7%. The median sales price for condominiums increased by 4.7% to $890,000. Interestingly, while days on the market increased by 29.3%, the months' supply of inventory spiked by 133.3%.

Big Island Market Report

In Hawaii's real estate market, the median price for single-family homes has seen a modest increase. The current median price is $499,000, marking a 1.3% rise from the previous year. This segment witnessed 137 closed sales, with properties averaging 55 days on the market before sale, indicating a relatively steady demand for single-family homes.

Conversely, the condominium market experienced a significant price surge with the median price reaching $539,000, a substantial 22.5% increase from last year. Despite this price hike, the number of closed sales slightly decreased by 6.5% from the previous year, totaling 29 sales. Condos averaged 58 days on the market, closely aligning with the market pace for single-family homes.

Kauai

In Kauai's housing market, the median price for single-family homes has decreased to $1,300,000, a notable drop of 21.2% compared to last year. This sector saw 25 homes sold, staying on the market for an average of 60 days.

Kauai's condominium segment displayed growth, with the median price rising to $775,000, up by 4% from the previous year. The number of condo sales increased by 15.8%, totaling 22 transactions, and these properties spent an average of 45 days on the market before selling.